What would a blue wave look like for Republicans?

Todd DeMarco, Contributing Writer

With the 2026 congressional midterm elections only a couple of weeks away, many questions have been raised pertaining to what a Republican loss might entail. What would it mean for President Donald Trump, his power and his ability to push his agenda? What could a Democratic victory mean for 2028? Will a Democratic victory in the midterms do anything to quell the trade war with Canada? These questions are of crucial importance, and their answers will certainly affect our lives. 

If Republicans lose either the House of Representatives or Senate, Trump will be negatively affected in many ways, some more obvious than others. With a Democratic victory in either, it is almost guaranteed that Democrats will launch aggressive congressional investigations and inquiries into Trump and his cabinet. These inquiries and investigations would be especially impactful if Democrats win because they would gain subpoena power, which enables them to legally compel people to produce documents and appear before Congress to provide testimony. 

A Democratic victory in the House will also create legislative gridlock, and limit the Trump administration's ability to advance its agenda through legislation. A Democratic victory in the Senate would also impact Trump’s future appointees and nominations. The Senate confirms major executive appointments, including Supreme Court Justices, Court of Appeals judges, district judges, ambassadors, public ministers, cabinet members and U.S. attorneys and U.S. marshals across judicial districts. If Republicans do in fact end up losing the Senate, Democrats can stall or deny Trump’s appointments to these positions, reducing the president’s executive power and influence. 

After the upcoming midterm elections, the next elections of paramount importance come in 2028. Even though Trump’s approval rating is astronomically low at the moment, sitting at around 34% as of Oct. 14, Trump's political MAGA allies have not yet fully experienced widespread disillusionment with the president. 

With Trump being out of the picture for the 2028 nomination, the American people are starting to wonder what Republicans will do. Currently, it seems Trump is pushing his MAGA disciple and Vice President, JD Vance, as his successor. However, the president has not been shy about mentioning his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, in talks about who the potential 2028 Republican presidential candidate will be. 

With Trump asking voters to vote as if he were on the ballot in the coming midterms, it would be smart for Republicans to interpret whatever the results are as a sign of which route they should take in 2028. If the results are disastrous, it would be wise for the Republican Party to start to move away from the MAGA movement and era of politics if they want to have much of a chance at winning in 2028. In modern U.S. politics, it is unlikely that the sitting vice president would not receive the nomination for president if he were to throw his hat in the ring. 

So, with JD Vance the most likely to receive the Republican nomination, he will certainly have some tough decisions to make. Vance will have to choose whether to stay loyal to Trump and his MAGA base, or make an attempt to try and distance himself from the president and his policies, and move back toward a pre–Trump polarized era of Republican politics. 

An important issue closer to home for us at Canisius and in the broader western New York area is the Trump administration’s tariffs and trade war with Canada. Trump’s tariffs affect not only us in New York, but also people across the country, and they will be an important factor for many when they cast their vote in this year’s midterms and likely in 2028 as well. If Democrats win in early November, will they be able to end Trump’s trade war with Canada? The answer is complicated and, unfortunately, not a simple yes or no. Democrats could propose legislation to reduce or repeal the Trump administration’s tariffs; however, the effect of this hypothetical legislation will depend entirely on the results of the midterm elections. If Democrats only win the House, the anti–tariff legislation would likely die in the Senate. If Democrats win both the House and Senate and push through anti–tariff legislation, Trump could use his executive power to veto it. Democrats would likely not have a large enough majority in the Senate to override the executive veto, which requires a two–thirds majority vote, and the legislation would fail. 

As unfortunate as this seems for Democrats, it would not be a completely hopeless situation. As mentioned earlier, Democrats winning either the House or Senate will allow them to use this power to hold high–profile, nationally televised  livestreamed committee hearings to scrutinize and expose the policies and practices championed by their Republican colleagues, including tariffs. If Democrats succeed in portraying Republican policies and practices as harmful and ineffective, Republicans will likely have to change them if they want a chance at surviving in 2028.

Canisius students and faculty, the issues that have been discussed in the article may seem too big for you to try and make a difference in. However, I am here to tell you that they are, in fact, not. On Nov. 3, you can ensure that your voice is heard by voting in the midterm elections, and by also casting your vote in the New York State gubernatorial election. Make sure you are registered to vote, so you can exercise your constitutional right and make a difference. 

With that being said, do not neglect your First Amendment rights either, and do not stand by silently while others make decisions on the issues that you care about deeply. The First Amendment deputizes you to speak freely, write freely, assemble freely, worship freely and petition freely. Do not take these rights for granted. Throughout American history, these rights have been continuously and deliberately attacked by politicians on both sides of the aisle. Remember, the future of American liberty has always fallen into the hands of the American populace, and it always will.